Provincial demographer talks possible year 2021 to 2071 population shifts in recent report
By William Crooks
Local Journalism Initiative
Quebec’s population is projected to grow steadily over the next five decades, with demographic shifts shaping regions like the Estrie and Sherbrooke areas, as outlined in a recent interview with demographer Frédéric Fleury-Payeur and in the “Perspectives démographiques du Québec et de ses régions, 2021-2071” report released Oct. 7. Fleury-Payeur, who has been studying demography for over 15 years at the Quebec Institute of Statistics, emphasized that these projections offer a glimpse into a possible future based on current trends in fertility, mortality, and migration.
“Demography is not about making predictions; it’s about projections. We try to understand what might happen if current trends continue,” said Fleury-Payeur, explaining the distinction between a forecast and a projection. The report paints a complex picture of population growth in the province and its regions. It estimates that Quebec’s population could reach 10.6 million by 2071, with migration being the primary driver of this growth, particularly after 2027.
Migration as the key to growth
“Migration, particularly international migration, is what will sustain Quebec’s population growth in the coming decades,” Fleury-Payeur explained. “We are projecting that despite recent efforts by both federal and provincial governments to reduce the number of temporary migrants, immigration will still be a key factor in population growth.”
The report indicates that Quebec will see a temporary slowdown in growth between 2024 and 2027 due to a reduction in temporary migration from 600,000 to 450,000 migrants by 2027. However, after this period, the province is expected to stabilize and resume growth thanks to a steady influx of permanent immigrants. According to the report, international migration will become even more crucial as Quebec faces negative natural population growth after 2027, with deaths outnumbering births.
Fleury-Payeur pointed out that, in the long run, Quebec will increasingly rely on immigrants to compensate for its declining birth rate. “We revised the fertility rate downward to 1.5 children per woman, from the previous estimate of 1.6. Right now, the rate is 1.38, and it’s trending lower,” he said. “This is part of a global trend, but it’s still a significant factor in our projections.”
